Log in

No account? Create an account

Previous Entry | Next Entry

With polls in my state opening in less than 4 hours, and with the likely results of this election not becoming clear until March 2005, we here at Sterling @ LiveJournal (motto: the editor is not yet dead...) decided to look at our cloudy crystal ball and attempt to predict the outcome of the election. As this crystal ball is cloudy (and this is my first time doing this), there will not be an exact prediction. Yes, this is less fun, but after the Jayson Blair NY Times Israeli National Guard documents fiasco, (we were intentionally misled by our uncovered mole, J. Jackson) we're not risking any of the remaining credibility we stole without attribution from the mainstream media.

I honestly see the election being won by Kerry by 3% -- 50-47. However, as I see it, I think it is more likely for Kerry to win it big (4-5 percentage points) than Bush. If Bush is going to win, it will probably be by around 1.5% points or less. I feel the Democrats want this much more, and have mobilized a bigger base to turn out. They couldn't have done it without George W. Bush.

I'm not going to guess exact electoral college numbers, since it would require me to figure out who is going to win each state. My range would be from Bush by 5 to Kerry by 20, with Kerry by 5-10 to be most likely. Now, to pick how my state, Virginia, is going to go, I'd say Bush by 4-6% Probably Bush 53% Kerry 47%. Virginia may be beginning to trend Democratic, but I don't think it is there, yet.

If you want to be frightened, there are at least two people predicting a perfect tie of 269-269. Will Saletan at Slate (as of 11pm ET), and Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia. If it winds up as I tie, I'm hiding in a bunker until next March.

Elsewhere: The Washington Post's Crystal Ball Predictions 2004